Iran–Israel War Scenario: by Ayesha Abadit

 

Iran–Israel War Scenario: A Comprehensive Geopolitical Analysis

The Middle East has long been a theater of deep-rooted ideological conflicts, proxy wars, and shifting alliances. Among the most volatile rivalries in the region is the one between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the State of Israel. Though the two nations have never engaged in a direct, full-scale war, the potential for such a conflict is real, and its consequences could be devastating not only for the region but for global security.

This article delves into the background of Iran-Israel tensions, explores realistic triggers for war, outlines possible phases of military engagement, and evaluates the potential regional and global fallout. It is not a prediction, but a strategic analysis meant to understand one of the world's most dangerous hypothetical scenarios.

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I. Background: Decades of Hostility

1.1 Historical Roots

Before the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran and Israel shared relatively good relations. But after Ayatollah Khomeini came to power, the new Islamic regime adopted an anti-Israel stance, denouncing Zionism and supporting Palestinian liberation.

1.2 Ideological Differences

Iran sees Israel as an illegitimate occupier and a Western outpost in the Islamic world. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei frequently calls for Israel’s disappearance. Meanwhile, Israel considers Iran's rhetoric and regional ambitions a direct threat to its existence.

1.3 Proxy War and Covert Operations

The Iran–Israel conflict has manifested through proxy battles and covert action:

• Iran supports Hezbollah, Hamas, and other anti-Israel militant groups.

• Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes in Syria targeting Iranian assets.

• Iran has accused Israel of assassinating its nuclear scientists and carrying out cyberattacks (like the Stuxnet virus).

• In 2020, Israel was widely blamed for the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a top Iranian nuclear scientist.

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II. Potential Triggers for Full-Scale War

Although tensions have persisted for years, several flashpoints could ignite a direct military conflict:

2.1 Iranian Nuclear Breakout

If Iran reaches the capability to build nuclear weapons, Israel may conduct preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites (similar to the 1981 bombing of Iraq’s Osirak reactor or the 2007 attack on Syria’s Al Kibar facility).

2.2 Missile Attacks from Proxies

An all-out attack by Hezbollah or a combined assault by Hezbollah and Hamas—especially if Iran is seen as orchestrating the attack—could prompt Israel to retaliate against Iran itself.

2.3 Israeli Assassinations or Strikes Inside Iran

A high-profile assassination or sabotage event within Iran linked to Israel could trigger retaliation by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards or even spark a direct conflict.

2.4 Naval Incidents or Cyber Escalation

Both countries have reportedly attacked each other’s commercial vessels and engaged in cyber warfare. Escalation in these domains could spill into kinetic warfare.

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III. The War Unfolds: Phases and Scenarios

If diplomacy fails and a war begins, it would likely be multifront, asymmetric, and extremely destructive. Here's how such a war might unfold:

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Phase 1: Preemptive Strikes

3.1 Israeli Offensive

• Airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites: Natanz, Fordow, and Arak.

• Use of stealth aircraft, drones, and long-range missiles.

• Simultaneous cyberattacks to cripple Iranian air defense and command systems.

3.2 Iranian Retaliation

• Ballistic missile attacks on Israeli military bases and cities.

• Activation of proxies: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria.

• Possible attempts to target Israeli or Jewish interests globally.

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Phase 2: Proxy War and Regional Spread

3.3 Northern Front: Hezbollah

• Hezbollah, with an estimated 150,000+ rockets, opens fire from southern Lebanon.

• Targets include Haifa, Tel Aviv, and critical infrastructure.

• Israel responds with airstrikes and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

3.4 Southern Front: Gaza

• Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad launch rocket barrages from Gaza.

• Israel retaliates with a ground incursion into Gaza.

3.5 Syrian and Iraqi Militias

• Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq attack U.S. and Israeli positions.

• Israel conducts strikes deep into eastern Syria and western Iraq.

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Phase 3: Naval and Cyber Warfare

3.6 Naval Conflict

• Iran attempts to block or disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the global oil supply.

• Israel (possibly supported by the U.S. Navy) counters through strikes on Iranian naval bases and assets.

3.7 Cyber Operations

• Iran launches cyberattacks on Israeli water, electricity, and banking systems.

• Israel responds by crippling Iranian government networks and air defense systems.

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Phase 4: U.S. and Global Involvement

3.8 U.S. Support for Israel

• While the U.S. may not immediately enter the war, it provides intelligence, missile defense systems (e.g., THAAD), and possibly air support.

• American bases in the Gulf become targets of Iranian retaliation, forcing limited U.S. military engagement.

3.9 Arab States’ Reaction

• Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while historically at odds with Israel, may quietly support its efforts against Iran.

• Some may allow U.S. or Israeli use of airspace, though none are likely to join the war openly.

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IV. Consequences of an Iran–Israel War

The aftermath of such a war would be catastrophic. Here's how it could affect different regions and sectors:

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4.1 Civilian Impact

• Massive civilian casualties, especially in Lebanon, Gaza, and Israel’s urban areas.

• Hospitals, power grids, and public transport systems were damaged.

• Displacement of hundreds of thousands—potential refugee crisis in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.

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4.2 Economic Collapse in the Region

• Oil prices could skyrocket past $200 per barrel.

• Strait of Hormuz closure would paralyze global energy markets.

• Iran’s economy, already fragile, could collapse under the weight of war and sanctions.

• Israel’s tech-driven economy would suffer from infrastructure damage and capital flight.

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4.3 Global Repercussions

• The world economy was destabilized, particularly in Europe and Asia, due to oil disruptions.

• Increased terrorism threats worldwide as Iranian-backed cells retaliate.

• Tensions between the  U.S., Russia, and China grow as they take opposing stances.

• Iran’s use of non-state actors across continents makes the war borderless.

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4.4 Long-Term Strategic Shifts

• A devastated Iran may double down on building nuclear weapons post-war.

• Israel’s regional alliances with Gulf states could strengthen.

• Emergence of new terrorist groups or insurgencies in the post-war vacuum.

• U.S. credibility in the region either rises (if it defends Israel effectively) or plummets (if it fails to manage escalation).

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V. Deterrence and Diplomatic Avenues

Despite high tensions, both Iran and Israel understand the costs of direct war. This is why conflict has remained in the shadows and proxies so far.

5.1 Role of Deterrence

• Israel’s military and intelligence superiority deters Iran from overt moves.

• Iran’s large missile arsenal and proxy network deter Israel from full-scale war.

5.2 Diplomacy and Back-Channels

• Oman, Qatar, and Turkey have served as intermediaries between Iran and the West.

• Nuclear negotiations, such as the JCPOA, help reduce tensions, though they remain fragile.

• Track II diplomacy and academic exchanges offer small windows for engagement.

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VI. Conclusion: A War Best Avoided

A direct war between Iran and Israel would be catastrophic, not only for both countries but for the entire Middle East and the global economy. The human cost would be staggering. Cities would burn, economies would crash, and the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East could be forever altered.

The good news is that deterrence still works, and rational actors on both sides—despite fiery rhetoric—recognize the risks. However, accidents, miscalculations, or a wrong move by a proxy could still ignite a fire that neither side truly wants.

The world must remain vigilant, encourage diplomatic dialogue, and strengthen international frameworks that reduce nuclear risks and regional tensions. Only through diplomacy, pressure, and engagement can the nightmare scenario of an Iran–Israel war be avoided.

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